CLSA expects Macau GGR to improve in 2026

01/13/25

CLSA says Macau GGR for 2025 will be “modest.”

Macau.- Brokerage CLSA has said Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is likely to be up 4 per cent this year to MOP2.76bn (US$29.4m) mainly due to more visitors.

However, in 2026, GGR will be up 10.4 per cent year-on-year to MOP224.19bn. Analysts said they think that stabilising property prices in China will help rebuild consumer confidence, which they expect to start improving in the second half of 2025. They added even the slower growth this year will likely depend on a recovery in consumer confidence in China, which is currently close to a 34-year low.

As a result, analysts said that Macau’s gaming companies will need to adjust their investment plans during this time of “modest” growth and added dividend payouts still have not fully returned to pre-COVID-19 levels across the sector.

Citigroup forecasts strong start for Macau GGR in 2025

Citigroup has projected that Macau’s GGR for January will reach MOP19bn (US$2.38bn), averaging MOP613m (US$76.7m) per day. The figure would be 76 per cent of 2019 levels.

Although GGR for January alone would be down 2 per cent year-on-year, analyst George Choi said that GGR for January and February combined could reach MOP40bn (US$5.01bn). That’s a rise of 6 per cent year-on-year.

Citigroup said that its forecast “neutralises the impact of the timing of Chinese New Year” and Golden Week that will take place from January 28 to February 4. Analysts further said the January projection also reflected a slower travel period leading up to Chinese New Year, which usually happens about two weeks before Golden Week.

Choi explained that the expected 2 per cent decline in year-on-year terms for January is due to the timing of the Spring Festival travel rush, a time that is typically quieter for Macau.

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