Citigroup raises Macau Q4 GGR forecast to US$6.52bn

The revised GGR estimate would imply a 7.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth.

Macau.- Citigroup has adjusted its projections for Macau’s fourth-quarter casino gross gaming revenue (GGR). Despite concerns about the state of the Chinese economy, analysts have raised their forecast from MOP51.0bn to MOP52.5bn (US$6.52bn). This would signify quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.4 per cent.

Citigroup analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung said their optimism had been spurred by Macau’s “unprecedented event calendar.” They also noted that “players are spending more in Macau, despite the current weakness in the Chinese economy.”

Several entertainment events are planned by Macau’s six casino operators for the upcoming Golden Week and the remainder of the quarter. These include concerts featuring Hong Kong artists MC Cheung Tin Fu, Terence Lam, and Kelly Chen, and a poolside party featuring American basketball star Shaquille O’Neal.

Golden Week, which includes China’s National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival, is expected to attract a significant influx of visitors. The Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) has raised its daily visitor arrival forecast for the national holidays by more than 10 per cent and now expects an average of “over 100,000” visitors daily. 

Citigroup expects a daily average GGR of MOP765m from October 1 to 6, falling to MOP575m for the rest of the month. It has adjusted its GGR forecasts for November and December, projecting MOP16.0bn and MOP17.5bn, respectively. For the full year 2023, Citigroup’s GGR estimate now stands at MOP181.5bn, equivalent to around 62 per cent of 2019 levels, prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Looking ahead, Citigroup expects 2024 GGR of MOP216bn and 2025 GGR of MOP234bn.