Citigroup expects Macau GGR to rise in H2
Analysts expect GGR to be up 6 per cent in year-on-year terms.
Macau.- Citigroup has projected that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth for the second half of the year could reach 6 per cent year-on-year. That would take full-year GGR to MOP235.7bn (US$29.15bn), an increase of 4 per cent year-on-year.
Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau based the forecast on events and concerts planned for the second half of 2025, including by popular Chinese artists Jacky Cheung and Aaron Kwok as well as Air Supply and TWICE.
Citigroup said GGR noted GGR increases in April and May and a strong start to June. In April, GGR was MOP18.86bn (US$2.36bn), an increase of 1.7 per cent in year-on-year terms. In May, GGR was MOP21.19bn (US$2.62bn), up 1.7 per cent year-on-year and the city’s best monthly performance since Covid-19.
A week ago, the Macau government lowered its GGR forecast for the year by 5 per cent, from MOP240bn (US$ 29.8bn) to MOP 228bn (US$ 28.3bn). Citigroup views this “as the bear-case scenario” but disagreed with comments suggesting a drop in the quality of visitors to Macau. Some analyses noted a 10 per cent drop in per capita spending but Citigroup said that, year-to-date, the amount spent on gaming per visitor was largely flat, indicating that “players remain passionate about gaming and, more importantly, that the ongoing Sino-US trade conflicts so far appear not to be discouraging them from playing.”
Citigroup analysts argued that the best way to assess visitor quality is to look at GGR compared to overnight stays in hotels, which are often free for casino players. They concluded that as GGR and overnight visits have grown similarly, the spending per person on gaming, and therefore the quality of players, “is holding up well.”
Macau received 12,955,456 visitors in the first four months of the year. That’s an increase of 12.9 per cent when compared to last year. Same-day visitors (7,578,976) grew by 23.4 per cent while overnight visitors (5,376,480) rose by 0.8 per cent. The cumulative average length of stay of visitors shortened by 0.1 day year-on-year to 1.1 days. The duration of stay for same-day visitors (0.2 day) remained unchanged, while that for overnight visitors (2.3 days) increased by 0.1 day.
