Bernstein reassesses June GGR in Macau

According to brokerage Bernstein, the growth of GGR in Macau during June is likely to be lower than the 3-5% it had forecast previously.

Macau.- The Macanese industry isn’t performing as it did in previous years, and brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein took note. The firm reassessed its previous 3-5% forecast for June’s GGR growth in Macau and is now more cautious.

According to Bernstein, GGR in Macau is likely to grow only 1-3% in June. It explained that the VIP baccarat hold rate was lower than expected and dragged the overall figures down. So far, counting the first 23 days of June, figures are close to what they were in 2018. Macau’s casinos recorded €1.88 billion in GGR for a daily average close to €81.5 million.

“Improvements in transportation infrastructure, continued growth of the premium consuming class in China and the opening and ramping-up of new casino resorts will support long-term growth in mass,” analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhuhai said. “With strong premium consumer growth in China forecasted over the long run, Macau’s secular growth story remains intact,” they added.

GDP estimates for 2019

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macau GDP is likely to contract by 0.3% in 2019. They released the assessment after the 3.2% drop recorded in the first quarter of the year.

In a recent report, the research and analysis division of The Economist Group said GDP will shrink. It explained it’s due to fewer government investments in public works and no new openings of large-scale casino resorts.

The document also explains that mainland China’s economy would impact in Macau’s GDP, especially in the casino segment.

As reported by the EIU, Macau’s economy will return to growth in 2020, anyway. Then, Macay GDP is likely to increase by 1.6% thanks to new public works projects. Furthermore, the expected opening of the Grand Lisboa Palace casino resort early next year will boost figures.