Seaport lowers Macau GGR forecast for 2025
Analysts now expect Macau GGR to grow by only 3 per cent this year.
Macau.- Seaport Research Partners has revised downwards its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau’s casino sector for this year from 6.5 per cent to 3 per cent. The move follows a “weaker than expected start to the year.” For 2026 and 2027, analysts maintained their forecasts at 7 per cent with GGR expected to reach 92 per cent of 2019 levels by 2027.
Analyst Vitaly Umansky said he expects the market to strengthen in late summer and the second half of this year, adding that he does not expect US president Donald Trump’s tariff announcements to significantly hurt Macau’s economy for now.
He noted that the long-term growth of Macau’s gaming industry is still strong, driven by more visitors and higher spending on baccarat side bets, which have a higher casino advantage. Seaport said the benefits of smart digital tables could be better than expected.
Seaport warned that a significant drop in the value of China’s currency or a weaker Chinese economy could negatively impact its forecast. It expects first-quarter results to be weak as Macau’s growth stagnated, although individual companies should perform as expected.
In the first quarter, GGR reached MOP57.66bn (US$7.21bn). That’s an increase of 0.6 per cent in year-on-year terms. Seaport expects industry property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to decline by 0.6 per cent sequentially and by 6.5 per cent in year-on-year terms. Analysts attributed the decline to higher costs and weaker non-gaming revenue, which hurt operating efficiency. The EBITDA margin is estimated to fall to 27 per cent in the first quarter, down 29.1 per cent year-on-year.
The future of satellite casinos depends on concessionaires, Macau CE says
Chief executive (CE) Sam Hou Fai has said that the future of satellite casinos in Macau depends on Macau’s gaming concessionaires, not the government. During a Q&A session, he rejected calls for government action and said casino operators needed to take responsibility for issues related to satellite casinos, including making contingency plans.
Under Macau’s revised gaming law, satellite venues have until December 31, to transition to a management company arrangement, under which they won’t share gaming revenue but will receive a management fee from the concessionaire.
