Seaport expects Macau gaming growth to slow despite strong May performance
The brokerage maintains a positive outlook for 2026 but warns that softer demand could limit revenue growth in the second half.
Macau.- Despite stronger-than-expected results in May, analysts at Seaport Research Partners believe the Macau casino sector’s growth is likely to slow in the coming months. It forecasts full-year Macau GGR growth of 6.2 per cent, with growth in the second half slowing to 4 per cent year-on-year unless demand or liquidity conditions improve.
According to official figures, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.6bn (US$2.8bn) in May, up 6.7 per cent year-on-year. Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky said the result could have been stronger if not for unusually low VIP hold, estimating that hold-adjusted growth may have exceeded 12 per cent. The firm expects June to be a challenging month, expecting GGR to decline by 0.3 per cent compared to June 2025.
According to Seaport, premium gaming remains the main driver of growth, supported by strong liquidity and easier access to visas and credit. However, it noted that the mass-market segment, particularly overnight visitors, continues to lag behind pre-pandemic levels.
