Morgan Stanley cuts Macau GGR forecast

Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd has predicted GGR for 2022 will be circa 15 per cent of that from 2019.

Macau.- Due to ongoing travel restrictions and new Covid-19 cases in China, Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd has cut its predictions for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for this year and 2023. Analysts have reduced their forecasts by 17 per cent and 3 per cent respectively.

According to the brokerage, the city’s GGR for 2022 will be just under MOP44.93bn (US$5.56bn), close to 15 per cent of 2019 GGR. The figure for 2023 will be MOP124.29bn, about 43 per cent of 2019 levels.

However, it noted that two events expected in November could help boost Macau’s GGR. The first is the possible announcement of the six casino operators to obtain new gaming concessions for the next ten years. Authorities have previously said they hoped the new concession term will begin on January 1, 2023.

A second positive sign would be the resumption of package tours from mainland China. In September, Macau’s chief executive, Ho Iat Seng, said the Chinese government was going to resume issuing electronic visas for mainlanders to visit Macau in November.

Package tours are expected to resume in phases starting with Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes, director of the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) has said the Macau government has communicated with Chinese authorities on Covid-19 prevention measures to facilitate such a move.

Mainland China suspended the issuance of individual travel visas to Macau at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in January 2020. Tour groups from China to Macau were suspended around the same time. Individual visa issuance was later reinstated but only for in-person applications. So far, mainland China is the only place with a basic quarantine-free travel arrangement with Macau.

Macau’s GGR for the first nine months of 2022 combined stands at MOP31.82bn.