Macau GGR forecast lowered

Deutsche Bank forecasts Macau’s GGR for 2021 will reach US$12.1bn (MOP97bn), down 67 per cent from pre-pandemic levels.

Macau.- After a drop in Macau’s GGR for August at MOP$4.44bn (US$554.5m), analysts at Deutsche Bank have reviewed their previous forecasts for 2021.

Deutsche Bank now forecasts full-year GGR of MOP$97bn (US$12.1bn), down 67 per cent from pre-pandemic levels.

The change comes after GGR declined by 47.7 per cent month-on-month in August, reaching the lowest monthly GGR figure since September 2020. Analysts had previously predicted Macau’s GGR for the year could reach US$19.29bn, up 155 per cent year-on-year.

Carlo Santarelli, managing director of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., predicted third-quarter results would see nearly US$2.4bn in gaming results and the fourth quarter figure around US$3.5bn.

According to Santarelli, US$1.5bn in Q3 will come from the mass-market segment and US$917.9m from VIP tables.

As for the full-year GGR, US$7.7bn will come from the mass market segment, up 82 per cent year-on-year, while VIP tables will bring in US$4.3bn.

August results were affected by local cases of Covid-19 and hundreds of cancelled flights. The figure was, however, up 234 per cent year-on-year when compared to MOP$1.33bn in August 2020.

Aggregate casino GGR for the first eight months of the year totals MOP$61.91bn, up 70.1 per cent year-on-year when compared to the MOP$36.39bn in the same period in 2020.

May remains the month with the highest GGR of the year to date, mainly thanks to the Labour Day break, when Macau’s Public Security Police reported that 165,500 tourists came to Macau.

Macau could return to April and May visitor levels by October

Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd have suggested Macau could return to April and May visitor levels by October.

For the last week of August, analysts reported that average daily border movement in both directions was about 35,000 instances, up 7 per cent when compared to the previous week.

The MGTO has predicted the city could receive 25,000 visitors per day during the October Golden Week. This year, the October Golden Week will be held during the first seven days of October. Last year, the number of visitors entering the city surpassed 20,000 a day on average.