Macau GDP to grow by up to 44% in 2023, study says
A study expects tourist arrivals to recover to 70 to 80 per cent of 2019 levels.
Macau.- The University of Macau (UM) has released a report in which it suggests that Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by 20.5 to 44.1 per cent this year if tourist numbers reach 70 per cent of 2019 levels in Q3 and 80 per cent in Q4.
This would be a best case scenario. The study also contemplates a worst-case scenario in which arrivals could reach only 30 to 35 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
The report highlights the importance of attracting international visitors to reduce Macau’s reliance on mainland China tourists. The majority of visitors to Macau are from mainland China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan, with only a small percentage from other countries.
Hong Kong visitor arrivals have recovered to 90.2 per cent of 2019 levels, while mainland China arrivals remain at 47.3 per cent. The research team acknowledges that there are challenges ahead, particularly the labour shortage that hinders the growth of tourism-related industries.
Macau has seen a gradual increase in non-resident workers since travel restrictions were lifted, but the numbers are still significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels. In May, 3,306 non-resident workers were approved, bringing the total to 161,508, a 2.1 per cent monthly increase. The peak recorded in December 2019 was 196,538 non-resident workers.
The Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) reported the number of people employed in the city’s gaming sector rose to 69,300 between March and May. That’s up 2.2 per cent when compared to February to April (a rise of 1,500 workers). However, the figure was 1,900 lower than in the same period in 2022.
Macau GDP rises 38.8% in Q1
The government of Macau reported that gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of the year was up 38.8 per cent year-on-year. The growth was mainly due to the lifting of Covid-19-related travel restrictions and the resumption of package tours early this year.
Macau’s economic output reached 66.4 per cent of its first-quarter 2019 level. The GDP implied deflator, which measures changes in aggregate prices, rose 2.5 per cent year-over-year.
In April, a forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that Macau’s economy will grow by as much as 58.9 per cent in 2023. The GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 20.6 per cent, while growth of 8.5 per cent is estimated for 2025. These predictions come after three consecutive years of economic contraction due to strict Covid-19 prevention measures.
