Seaport expects Macau’s casino revenue to drop in October
Macau casino revenue is expected to fall 5 per cent in October as weaker demand and lower visitor spending weigh on the market.
Key takeaways:
- Macau casino revenue is projected to fall 5 per cent year-over-year in October to MOP22.9bn (US$2.83bn).
- September revenue fell 1.2 per cent year-over-year to MOP18.06bn (US$2.23bn) despite visitor numbers rising by 3.5 per cent, but average spending per visitor fell 5 per cent.
- Seaport cited economic pressure in mainland China and stricter tax enforcement on offshore trusts as factors affecting high-end gambling demand.
Macau.- Seaport Research Partners expects Macau’s casino revenue to fall 5 per cent year-over-year in October as weaker customer demand and lower spending offset continued growth in visitor numbers. The October projection follows soft performance in September, when casino revenue fell 1.2 per cent year-over-year to MOP18.06bn (US$2.23bn) in what was the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year contraction. On a month-to-month basis, September revenues dropped 17.5 per cent compared to August.
Analysing the reasons behind the slowdown, Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky highlighted economic challenges in Mainland China and stricter tax enforcement by the Chinese government regarding offshore trusts, which has created financial pressure on wealthy individuals holding assets overseas. Some affluent investors have reportedly been forced to liquidate assets or take out loans to cover unexpected tax liabilities, directly impacting high-end gambling activity.
Although visitor numbers rose by 3.5 per cent year-over-year in September, average spending per visitor dropped by 5 per cent. Industry experts attribute this to an increase in budget-conscious tourists and visitors seeking non-gaming entertainment.
Seaport estimates that third-quarter revenues fell 3.8 per cent year-over-year, while fourth-quarter results are expected to remain flat. Despite the monthly declines, total gaming revenue for the first nine months of the year remains up 3.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2025. Seaport projects overall growth of 2.3 per cent for 2026 and 3 per cent for 2027.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
- How much is Macau casino revenue expected to be in October? Seaport Research Partners expects Macau casino revenue to decline 5 per cent year-over-year to approximately MOP22.9bn (US$2.83bn).
- Why is Macau casino revenue declining despite more visitors? Visitor numbers increased 3.5 per cent in September, but average spending per visitor fell 5 per cent as more tourists focused on lower-cost and non-gaming activities.
- How has Macau casino revenue performed in 2026? Revenue was down year-over-year for four consecutive months through September, but gaming revenue for the first nine months remained 3.2 per cent above the same period in 2025.
- What is the outlook for Macau casino revenue? Seaport expects fourth-quarter revenue to remain broadly flat and forecasts overall gaming revenue growth of 2.3 per cent for 2026 and 3 per cent for 2027.
