Macau casino EBITDA down 7% in Q2, Citi says
Analysts describe the April-June period as the sector’s toughest quarter since the post-pandemic resumption of normal operations.
Macau.- Q2 Casino EBITDA in Macau is projected to be down 7 per cent year-on-year and 12 per cent quarter-on-quarter to around US$1.92bn, according to a research note from Citigroup. Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said the April-June quarter is likely to have been the industry’s most challenging since the post-pandemic resumption of normal operations in January 2023.
The decline is attributed to softer gaming activity during the FIFA Club World Cup and unfavourable VIP hold rates that weighed on operators’ profitability. The analysts noted that the football tournament had temporarily diverted player spending away from Macau, while lower-than-normal luck in the VIP segment also pressured earnings.
The margin is believed to have been down by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to circa 25.8 per cent, amid a “lower-than-theoretical VIP hold,” analysts wrote.
Among Macau’s six concessionaires, Citigroup expects Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China and Wynn Macau to post the strongest relative EBITDA performance during the quarter. Sands China is forecast to deliver broadly stable results, while Melco Resorts & Entertainment and SJM Holdings are expected to have faced greater earnings pressure.
Analysts expect an upcoming wave of concerts to stimulate casino visitation and gaming demand after the World Cup. They highlighted events such as The Music of Chan Fai Young: King of POP, featuring singers Eason Chan and Joey Yung, and Hins Cheung’s UNPLUGGED2 concert as potential catalysts.
The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) was MOP18.52bn (US$2.8bn) in June, down 12.1 per cent in year-on-year terms and 18.1 per cent compared to May.
