Jefferies cuts Macau GGR forecast
Its estimate remains higher than the government forecast.
Macau.- Jefferies has revised downwards its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau’s casino sector. Analysts now expect GGR for 2025 to reach MOP237bn (US$29.3bn), down 1.3 per cent from their previous estimate of MOP240bn (US$30bn). That would be in line with market estimates, but higher than government estimates.
Analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei wrote: “Based on the first-half 2025 GGR trend, which was up 4.4 per cent year-on-year to MOP119bn, we lower our 2025/26/27 GGR assumptions slightly.”
They expect GGR growth of 4.5 per cent year-on-year. This compares to the market forecast of 4 per cent growth to MOP236bn and the government’s estimate of 0.5 per cent growth to MOP228bn. The Jefferies team said Galaxy Entertainment Group and MGM China Holdings will increase market share in 2025 and 2026 and that Sands China will eventually catch up.
Analysts also upgraded their forecast for the next two years, expecting GGR to grow 3.5 per cent to MOP245bn (US$30.3bn) in 2026 and 3.4 per cent to MOP254bn (US$31.4bn) in 2027.
