China’s zero-Covid policy likely to continue until 2023, analysts say

China’s showing no signs of changing its policy yet.

China.- Everything indicates that China has no plans to relax its zero-Covid policy this year. Local gaming expert Wang Changbin told GGRAsia that the policy is likely to continue until 2023, which means a continued drawn-out recovery for Macau’s gaming industry.

Wang Changbin stressed: “With this policy continuing, Macau’s gaming and leisure industry will continue to suffer due to the uncertainties and disruptions to the travel plan of tourists in mainland China.”

The latest statistics released by China’s National Health Commission on Wednesday confirmed that at least one community in every one of China’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and major cities had confirmed at least one new Covid-19 infection.

So far, mainland China is the only place with a basic quarantine-free travel arrangement with Macau. The Macau government has repeatedly said that its Covid-19 prevention policies are in line with those of mainland China.

Some 182,000 visitors arrived in Macau between October 1 and 7, 163,000 of them from mainland China. However, the national Golden Week holiday period saw a fresh increase in Covid-19 cases. Due to this, stock prices across Macau’s six casino operators have fallen in recent days.

Macau’s average daily casino gaming revenue (GGR) in the first nine days of October was MOP1.7bn (US$210.2m), or about MOP190m a day.

Citigroup cuts predictions for Macau’s GGR in October to US$680.2m 

Analysts at Citigroup have reduced their estimates for Macau’s October GGR. Citigroup had previously predicted that Macau’s GGR could reach MOP7.0bn (US$865.7m). However, analysts now forecast MOP5.5bn (US$680.2m) due to weak revenue during October Golden week.

Analysts said the daily average casino GGR in Macau during the national holiday period was lower than the MOP200m a day during the Labour Day holidays in May. Revenue was also lower than that recorded during the Chinese New Year holiday period from late January to early February.