German gambling operators see FIFA World Cup 2026 as “stress test” for regulated market
Regulated sportsbooks fear that over a third of World Cup bets could go to black market operators.
Germany. Deutscher Sportwettenverband (DSWV), the trade body representing licensed online sportsbooks in Germany, has reiterated its call for lawmakers to address what it sees as flaws in the country’s Interstate Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV). It estimates that the regulated betting sector in Germany will lose €300m to €400m in FIFA World Cup bets to channels not licensed by the federal regulator, the GGL.
The trade body forecasts that 2026 World Cup wagers in Germany will surpass €1bn, but it estimates that only €600 to €700m will be handled by licensed operators. It warns that the rest will be bet with unlicensed platforms serving German customers without authorisation, it claims.
With a federal review of the current market expected soon, the DSWV argues that changes need to be made to prevent more erosion of the regulated sector.
Mathias Dahms, president of the DSWV, argues: “This tournament is effectively a stress test for the regulated market. Matches involving the German team always drive betting volumes. As both a fan and an industry representative, I hope the national side stays in the competition as long as possible.
“We still face a serious issue. Official data shows around a third of users rely on illegal services to some extent. The black market has recently been growing 17 per cent faster than the legal market, according to the GGL.”
“Events like the World Cup should be an opportunity to bring players back into the legal market,” Dahms suggests. However, he argues that Germany’s regulatory framework puts licensed firms at a disadvantage due to a 5 per cent tax on stakes, a €1,000 monthly deposit cap and prohibitions on in-play betting. Popular micromarkets such as next goalscorer or penalty outcomes are prohibited.
“Consumers want bets like ‘Will Player X score another goal?’ but such live markets cannot be offered in Germany,” Dahms noted.
Unlicensed operators also face fewer constraints on marketing, allowing them to take more advantage of the visibility of major tournaments like the World Cup, he argued.
