Brazil prepares for launch of first prediction market offering
The B3 stock exchange has confirmed its intention to launch prediction markets in the first half of this year.
Brazil.- The B3 stock exchange intends to launch prediction markets in Brazil after gaining authorisation from the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM). It intends to bet on markets such as the valuation of the dollar, bitcoin and the Bovespa shares index.
According to a report published by Valor, initially, it will only be permitted for investors to make investments with assets exceeding R$10m (€1.61m) in financial applications.
“There is a public looking for this simplicity. It is an entry point, so that our investments can evolve. This is one of the two great values of the product,” said Luiz Masagão, vice-president of products and clients at B3.
Prediction markets have been growing in the United States, with Polymarket and Kalshi being major players, the latter being co-created by Brazilian Luana Lopes Lara. In many jurisdictions, they operate in a grey area between gambling and financial products. In Belgium and
In Britain, the Gambling Commission recently clarified that, subject to specific business models, it believes that prediction markets would fall within the definition of a ‘betting Intermediary‘ or ‘betting exchange’ under UK legislation. As such operators would require a betting intermediary gambling licence from the Gambling Commission.
Meanwhile, the Dutch gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) recently imposed a fine on Polymarket operator Adventure One QSS. It says the operator has been offering illegal gambling on the Dutch market by operating as Polymarket without a licence.
The KSA has called on Polymarket to cease its activities immediately. If it fails to do so, the company will be fined €420,000 per week, with a maximum of €840,000.
Australia and New Zealand’s regulators have also recently announced that they see prediction markets as illegal gambling, while countries including France and Belgium have imposed formal blocks against Polymarket.
