Morgan Stanley lowers Macau 2026 GGR forecast
The investment bank expects a slower market expansion through the remainder of the year.
Macau.- Morgan Stanley has revised downwards its outlook for Macau’s gaming industry in 2026. It’s lowered both its gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth forecast and earnings expectations amid signs of slower market expansion through the remainder of the year.
In their latest note, analysts Praveen Choudhary and Stephen Grambling cut their forecast for Macau’s 2026 GGR growth from the market consensus of 6 per cent to 5.3 per cent year-on-year. The revised projection implies annual GGR of MOP260.6bn (US$32.3bn).
Morgan Stanley said it now expects quarterly GGR growth of 2 to 3 per cent year-on-year through the fourth quarter of 2026, reflecting a more cautious view of demand and spending trends.
The bank also lowered its industry EBITDA forecast from 2 to 1 per cent growth. It cited slower revenue growth and a structurally higher cost base weighing on operator profitability. Corporate EBITDA across Macau’s six concessionaires is now projected to reach just under US$7.93bn.
Morgan Stanley noted that negative revisions to earnings estimates could persist amid reinvestment requirements, promotional spending and non-gaming expenses. The most significant forecast adjustments were linked to Sands China and SJM Holdings, driven by weaker-than-expected performance expectations in the second quarter.
The latest revision follows an earlier downgrade by Morgan Stanley in March, when the bank lowered its outlook on Macau gaming stocks and warned that margin pressures were becoming increasingly structural despite continued revenue growth.
