Analysts see strong Macau casino revenue for August and H2 2025
Analysts predict that August gross gaming revenue could reach the highest total for a non-Golden Week month since the pandemic.
Macau.- Morgan Stanley has forecast a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the second half of the year. It reported crowded casinos and hotels during a recent visit, including on weekdays, highlighting strong demand during the summer. Non-gaming attractions such as concerts and sporting events are helping to boost visitation and spending.
For August, it expects GGR is to be up 12 per cent to MOP20.5bn (US$2.55bn), building on four consecutive months of double-digit gains. Analysts noted that for the first 17 days of the month, GGR reached MOP12.1bn (US$1.5bn), averaging MOP712m (US$88.6m) per day.
JP Morgan goes further, forecasting Augus gross gaming revenue of between MOP21.9bn (US$2.72bn) and MOP22.5bn (US$2.79bn). That could mean it surpasses July’s MOP22.13bn (US$2.75bn) to become the highest total since the pandemic outside of China’s Golden Week holidays.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian reported that GGR for the first 24 days of August reached MOP17.65bn (US$2.19bn), averaging MOP735m (US$91m) per day. Last week’s run-rate rose 9 per cent to MOP793m (US$98m), the highest non-Golden Week GGR since the pandemic, thanks to strong visitation during peak summer holidays, they noted.
Both the VIP and mass market segments showed growth of 10 to 15 per cent year-on-year. Compared to 2019, VIP play has recovered to 30 per cent while mass gaming has reached 125 per cent of pre-Covid levels.
JP Morgan expects the trend to continue, projecting “sustained double-digit GGR growth” through at least the first quarter of 2026. Industry observers note the help of major summer events such as the Tencent Music Awards at Galaxy Arena.
Morgan Stanley said competition among operators remained “fierce” and operating costs are still high, but it believes the industry is entering a period of “super strong” performance compared with broader consumer trends in China. It expects operating leverage to improve in the months ahead, supporting higher margins.
