Macau GGR to reach US$30.1bn in 2025, CLSA says
The revised forecast reflects stronger-than-expected visitor demand.
Macau.- Investment bank CLSA has upgraded its forecast for Macau’s 2025 gross gaming fevenue forecast by 5.8 percentage points. It now projects a 7.6 per cent year-on-year increase to HKD234.8bn (USD30.1bn), up from an earlier forecast of 1.8 per cent growth. It cited a mix of favourable currency changes, steady premium mass performance and the launch of new ultra-luxury properties in the Cotai casino district.
CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang noted the 1.4 per cent appreciation of the Chinese renminbi against the US dollar in the second quarter as a key driver of stronger Chinese consumer purchasing power since most Macau casino wagers are placed in Hong Kong dollars, which is pegged to the US dollar.
Meanwhile, developments such as Sands China’s Londoner Macao Phase 2, Capella at Galaxy Macau, and new suites at MGM Macau are seen as strategic additions for attracting high-value guests to the Cotai Strip, already home to many of Macau’s flagship integrated resorts.
Visitor numbers rose 22 per cent year-on-year in April and May, reaching 95 per cent of 2019 levels. June saw a 19 per cent annual rise in GGR to MOP2.60bn (USD330m), with average daily revenues around MOP684m (USD85m). A nine-show concert series by Jacky Cheung at Galaxy Arena boosted June’s figures.
However, CLSA expects EBITDA margins to stay flat at 27.2 per cent in Q2 2025 and to dip slightly to 26.9 per cent in Q3. EBITDA is still projected to grow by 6.9 per cent year-on-year in Q2. For 2026, CLSA forecasts 2 per cent GGR growth.
