Macau GDP forecast to grow 16.8% this year

The University of Macau said growth will mainly be driven by a rebound in mainland Chinese tourists.

Macau.- The University of Macau has forecast a 16.8 per cent rise in Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the current year. This outlook exceeds previous predictions, including those by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Macau Economic Association.

According to Macao News, UM’s Centre for Macau Studies and Department of Economics initially estimated growth rates ranging from 8.3 per cent to 21 per cent, contingent upon the performance of the mainland Chinese tourist market. The university now anticipates that the number of mainland tourists will rebound to 90 per cent of 2019 levels this year. Analysts said the economic slowdown in mainland China is expected to have a minimal impact on Macau’s growth.

The UM forecasts that services exports will increase by 23.4 per cent and personal consumption expenditure by 4 per cent. Consumer prices are forecast to see an increase of 1.5 per cent and median monthly earnings 2.1 per cent.

The university predicts an overall unemployment rate of 2.2 per cent for 2024, with the unemployment rate among Macao residents slightly higher at 2.8 per cent. 

In 2023, Macau’s GDP rose 80.5 per cent year-on-year in real terms to over 80 per cent of 2019 levels, before the Covid-19 pandemic. Per-capita GDP for 2023 reached MOP559,495 (US$69,393).