Brokers review Macau gaming prospects after mixed Lunar New Year performance
JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley analysts say Chinese New Year gaming in Macau started slowly.
Macau.- JP Morgan Securities has revised its February Macau GGR forecast down from 2 to 5 per cent growth to 0 to 2 per cent. That’s due to “mixed lunar new year” performance.
This year, China, Macau’s main tourist market, celebrated Chinese New Year on February 17, with a nine-day holiday running from February 15 to 23. JP Morgan noted that GGR for the first 22 days of February reached MOP 14.3bn (US$1.78bn), or about MOP 650m (US$81m) per day. Last week’s run-rate averaged MOP 785m (US$87m) per day, below the bank’s expectation of MOP 850m (US$95m).
The analysts said the holiday started slowly, with the first four to five days averaging around MOP 450m (US$50m) per day, down from last year. From day six onward, activity picked up, with GGR exceeding MOP 1.2bn (US$133m) per day, implying growth of 10–15 per cent year-on-year.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian said the following days are crucial, as the post-holiday “tail demand” phase typically sees high-end players accelerate spending. Despite trimming its February forecast, JP Morgan said that January and February combined, adjusted for the lunar holiday’s timing, are still expected to deliver 12–13 per cent year-on-year growth.
Morgan Stanley’s take
For its part, Morgan Stanley has described Macau’s gaming performance over the Chinese New Year holiday as mild The bank noted early signs of moderation in marketing promotions and discounts at certain operators, but cautioned that similar trends in past cycles did not translate into lasting profitability gains.
“Operators highlighted stabilized promotional activities. But we have heard this before,” analysts Praveen K. Choudhary, Anson Lee, and Stephen W. Grambling wrote.
While visitor numbers held up well, spending per gambler was weaker. The bank highlighted a lower average age of gamblers, reflecting a shift in consumption behaviours. While this trend bodes well for the sector’s long-term stability, it may also lead to lower per-visitor spending and greater sensitivity to promotions.
Morgan Stanley confirmed that despite short-term headwinds, it retains a cautiously positive outlook. It projects February gross gaming revenue (GGR) to grow in the low single digits year on year and revenue for the first two months of 2026 to increase around 13 per cent.
The bank continues to back Galaxy Entertainment as a benchmark for the sector and Sands China for dividend income, while viewing Wynn Macau and Melco as relatively undervalued. Analysts noted that SJM Holdings could see an earnings turnaround in 2026 if it improves market share and tightens cost controls.
