JP Morgan expects Macau GGR to decline in Q4
GGR could be down 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter.
Macau.- Analysts at JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) have predicted that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could fall 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter. Analysts said that despite stable performance so far, it has revised its fourth quarter GGR forecast downwards from a 5 per cent increase to an 8 per cent decrease year-on-year due to increasing macro headwinds.
DS Kim and Selina Li said the updated model was part of an effort to establish a floor earnings baseline amid emerging economic uncertainties, including the tariff dispute between the US and China.
Analysts said: “Historical trends suggest a 10 percentage point reduction in GGR loosely implies a 5 percentage point slowdown in China’s gross domestic product (GDP), hence we believe our cut reflects a reasonable bear-case.”
Analysts noted that the combined market capitalisations of the six casino operators have dropped to levels not seen since the last Macau initial public offering (IPO) in 2011, even though there are now 10 integrated resorts (IRs) in the city compared to just three at the time.
As for US president Donald Trump’s tariffs, analysts said that while the announcements may not have a direct impact on Macau, they could lead to slower economic growth given its exposure to Guangdong, China’s largest export hub and a weaker renminbi.
In the first quarter, GGR reached MOP57.66bn (US$7.21bn). That’s an increase of 0.6 per cent in year-on-year terms
