Jefferies projects Macau mass-market GGR growth of 6.6 per cent in 2026
Jefferies noted that Macau’s casino sector likely saw a rise in profitability in Q4 compared with Q3.
Macau.- Jefferies Hong Kong Ltd has forecast that Macau’s mass-market gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow 6.6 per cent year-on-year in 2026. That compares to an estimated 4.3 per cent in 2025.
The note says VIP GGR growth is expected to decline from 24.1 per cent in 2025 to 2 per cent in 2026. Mass GGR is projected to reach MOP191.26 bn (US$23.82 bn) and VIP GGR MOP69.34bn (US$8.63bn).
On expectations for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, Jefferies expects a rise in profitability compared with Q3. Analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei wrote in the report: “We expect improvement versus third-quarter 2025, which was impacted by two typhoons, though partially offset by rising competition as Sands China Ltd and Wynn Macau Ltd stepped up incentives in this quarter.”
It said Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw Q4 GGR market shares of 24.4 per cent, up 0.5 points, and 22.1 per cent, up 1.7 points, respectively. It added that strong attendance during China’s National Golden Week and National Games, jointly organised by Macau, Hong Kong and Guangdong province in November, boosted performance for the operators.
