IMF: Macau’s GDP to fall 1.3 percent in 2019

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Macau’s GDP to fall by 1.3% this year and by 1.1% in 2020.

This forecast was included in IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, published last week.

Back in May, the IMF had forecast that the annual rate of growth in Macau’s GDP would be 4.3% this year. The fund’s prediction at the time was in light of discussions in April between both IMF and Macau officials.

The IMF predicted in May that growth in the VIP gaming market in Macau would be subdued in the medium term. Macau VIP gross gaming revenue fell by 22.5% year-on-year in the third quarter this year. While, VIP gaming revenue as a proportion of all casino GGR in the third quarter stood at 43.9%.

The aggregate of Macau casino GGR for the nine months to September 30 stood at €24,4 billion, a difference of 1.7% year-on-year, comparing with what the government had confirmed on October 1.

Macau’s GDP increased by 4.7% year-on-year in real terms last year, according to the city’s Statistics and Census Service.

Finally, and according to the IMF, Macau’s economic growth begun moderating in the second half of 2018, as investment weakened and custom from free-spending visitors declined as a result of the deleveraging effort in mainland China and the trade row between the U.S. and the mainland.