Bernstein: mass will continue to trump VIP market

Analysts believe the shift in the business will continue to consolidate during and after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Macau.- Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein believe the pandemic won’t affect the shift in the Macau casino business, with mass market continuing to increasingly drive revenue growth, while VIP business will drop to a third of all revenue.

Bernstein estimates that local gross gaming revenues (GGR) will grow at an annual rate of 7 per cent to US$47 billion by 2023, led by 8 per cent annual growth rate in the mass market.

The VIP market, which accounted for 73 per cent of total GGR in 2011 and only 39 per cent last year, will represent a third of all business.

Analysts said: “The shift in the market will continue in the over the coming years, driven by still low Chinese penetration, incremental capacity expansion, and transportation improvements. Increasing visitation and spend per visitor will drive long-term secular growth in the industry.”

Bernstein believes numbers of Chinese high-rollers visiting Macau will remain low for the time being.

Guangdong travellers contributed about 30 per cent of mass GGR in Macau and 15 per cent of VIP business.