ADB cuts Cambodia’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.9% as tourism weakens
The Asian Development Bank lowered its 2026 growth projection for Cambodia from 4.1 per cent to 3.9 per cent.
Cambodia.- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has cut its forecast for Cambodia’s economic growth in 2026 from 4.1 per cent to 3.9 per cent. Its September 2026 Asian Development Outlook cites a drop in tourism and related services, with international visitor arrivals down 47.9 per cent year-on-year to 1.8 million in the first half of 2026.
ADB signalled geopolitical tensions, conflict on the Cambodia-Thailand land border and concerns surrounding the transnational scam industry as contributing factors. These have had an impact on Cambodia’s land-based gaming sector, where casinos and entertainment venues rely heavily on international visitors.
ADB expects growth to recover to 4.7 per cent in 2027, supported by manufacturing, export diversification and continued foreign direct investment. It’s raised its 2026 inflation forecast for Cambodia to 4.7 per cent, citing higher global energy prices and imported input costs. Inflation is projected to ease to 2.8 per cent in 2027.
ADB Country Director for Cambodia Yasmin Siddiqi said: ”Cambodia’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience. Strong manufacturing exports and buoyant investment inflows are helping offset tourism sector challenges. Continued efforts to diversify the economy, enhance competitiveness, support vulnerable households, and strengthen resilience will be important for sustaining inclusive growth.”
State revenue from casino gaming and gambling duties in Cambodia fell 25.8 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2026 to approximately US$28m. The largest contributor was NagaWorld Casino, which paid additional mandatory gaming revenue after a 2024 audit.
