IG Group bets on prediction markets as trading and gambling converge
The FTSE 100 firm is positioning itself at the centre of a fast-growing sector facing unresolved regulatory questions.
Key takeaways
- IG Group plans to launch a consumer-facing prediction markets product in the UK through its IG Consumer division.
- The company believes there is strong UK demand and intends to combine prediction markets, crypto and traditional trading on a single platform.
- The move follows IG Group’s $1.1bn acquisition of US prediction markets and DFS operator Underdog.
- IG applied for a UK Gambling Commission licence one week before unveiling its prediction markets strategy.
- The launch could place IG at the centre of an emerging regulatory debate over whether prediction markets should be treated as gambling products or financial instruments.
IG Group has unveiled plans to enter the UK prediction markets sector, marking one of the clearest signs yet that the boundaries between trading, investing and betting are beginning to blur. Backed by its acquisition of Underdog and a UK gambling licence application, the strategy positions the FTSE 100-listed company to pursue growth in a market that has attracted significant attention in the US but remains largely undeveloped in Britain.
UK.- London-listed IG Group has outlined plans to launch a prediction markets product in the UK as early as the current quarter as it seeks to capitalise on growing interest in the sector. The FTSE 100-listed trading company believes prediction markets represent a natural extension of its existing offering, particularly as the products continue to gain momentum in the United States.
The launch would be led by IG Consumer, the group’s retail investing division, with management telling investors it sees “strong appetite for prediction markets in the UK”. Speaking at the company’s Capital Markets Event on October 22, IG Consumer chief executive Michael Healy said the business intends to combine prediction markets, cryptocurrency and traditional trading products within a single proprietary platform.
The announcement came one week after the firm submitted an application for a betting licence with the British Gambling Commission. The move follows IG Group’s acquisition of US daily fantasy sports and prediction markets operator Underdog in July in a $1.1bn deal.
Advertising rollout and leverage of Underdog’s experience
The company is now seeking to build on that investment by introducing consumer-facing prediction markets to the UK, where the sector remains far less developed than in the US. To support the rollout, IG plans to launch a marketing campaign centred on helping customers “trade better”. Advertising is scheduled to appear on UK television, including Sky Sports, from next month. The company expects to expand its prediction market offering to cover politics, entertainment and sports by early 2027.
“Trading, investing and entertainment are converging, and IG is well placed to capitalise on the opportunity,” said IG Group chief executive Breon Corcoran at the Capital Markets Event.
Alongside its product expansion plans, IG Group reiterated that its proposed redomiciliation to Jersey remains on schedule and is expected to complete later this year or in early 2027. Combined with the Underdog acquisition, the development is likely to fuel further speculation about the company’s long-term focus and the potential for a secondary listing, which could have implications for its place within the FTSE 100.
Underdog currently offers prediction products across 46 US states. In developing its prediction markets strategy, IG expects to draw on the expertise of founder Jeremy Levine and his team.
Prediction markets have become a highly debated topic in the US because they claim to be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gambling regulators. IG Group’s decision to apply for a Gambling Commission licence marks a notable distinction from Underdog’s existing US model. By seeking a gambling licence, the company is effectively positioning its UK prediction markets business within the gambling regulatory framework rather than claiming financial markets regulation. The Gambling Commission has previously commented that it believes prediction markets would fall under gambling regulation in the UK rather than financial regulation.
Should the project proceed, the business could fall under the oversight of both the Gambling Commission and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The FCA has already indicated that it intends to hold discussions on the future regulation of prediction markets in the UK.
In the US, where market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket have consistently rejected characterisations of their products as gambling. They maintain that prediction markets are financial trading platforms offering event contracts and derivatives. However, like in the US, many European betting operators dispute that distinction, arguing that sports-based prediction markets are functionally similar to traditional sports betting products.
Many European gambling regulators have issued blocking orders and/or threats of fines against prediction platform operators. Only Gibraltar has created a dedicated regulatory framework for the sector after initially grinding ADI Predictstreet a gambling licence to facilitate its sponsorship arrangement with the FIFA 2026 World Cup.
