The Ultimate Guide to Blackjack Odds: Everything You Need to Know

Blackjack is one of the most popular table games, and you’ll find it in almost every casino across the world. If you go to Vegas, you’ll find all kinds of blackjack played – some with better payouts than others. You will almost inevitably at least think about playing it when you get started with casino games, and in many cases, it might even become your favorite. 

However, doing your research before playing blackjack is crucial. The odds of winning blackjack are sometimes hard to understand, and several factors can influence your chances. If you aren’t aware of these, you could find yourself constantly fighting an uphill battle to even stand the remotest possibility of winning. 

To help you enjoy playing blackjack more, we’ve put together this comprehensive guide to blackjack odds. Keep reading to discover everything you need to know about playing, such as whether the payout remains the same and if you can potentially improve your chances of a payout. 

What Are the Odds of Winning in Blackjack?

Before we get into the granular details about odds, you must first understand the overall chance of winning blackjack. Generally speaking, the dealer is always the favorite in blackjack. Their chance of winning is 49%, and this is why it’s sometimes so difficult to win when you’re at a casino. 

Alongside the general chances of winning, you should keep in mind that the house edge adds an extra 0.5%. This is when you use a strategy that increases your chances of winning, too, so it’s actually higher if you go in with a suboptimal one. If you don’t have this, the house edge could increase to 4% (though it might also sometimes be lower than this). 

In comparison, you have around a 42% chance of winning as a player. This is still substantial when compared to other casino games, but it does mean you should understand your chances of outsmarting the dealer are still lower than you might want. 

Sometimes, blackjack games don’t end with any winner. In these cases, the stake will be pushed back to you. This is known as a tie; the chances of this happening are around 9%. 

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The Odds for Landing on Different Numbers in Blackjack

Winning at blackjack is about getting as close to 21 as possible without busting, and understanding whether the dealer will bust is important. While you can still win without reaching 21, the chances of you doing so will differ. 

Below, you’ll find the odds of your opponent busting – based on your own totals. 

• 21: 100%; you will win in all cases. 
• 20: The dealer has a 92% chance of busting. 
• 19: There’s an 85% chance you’ll win. 
• 18: You have a 77% chance of making your opponent bust. 
• 17: The dealer’s hand is likely to bust in 69% of scenarios. 

Anything below 17 is generally more balanced. While the chances of a hand busting are still above half for 16, 15, and 14, you might want to reconsider whether this is actually a good idea. Your choice will vary depending on what’s happening in the individual game. 

What Are the Odds of Winning a Blackjack Hand? 

Your odds of winning a blackjack hand are 42% as a baseline. You can improve your chances of not losing, however, if you take steps to reduce the house edge. 

Does the Chance of Winning Blackjack Differ From Game to Game?

Depending on the type of blackjack you play, the odds may change. For example, you won’t have any cards with a value of 10 within your deck. Meanwhile, Atlantic City Blackjack uses eight decks. 

If you’re playing the same type of blackjack, though, the chances of winning are roughly the same. Although the deck will be shuffled, the cards will remain the same – meaning that the probability is identical. 

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Does the Payout in Blackjack Stay the Same?

In addition to understanding the odds of winning blackjack, knowing your payout is also a good idea. Depending on where the casino you play with, the amount of money you win might differ. 

Some casinos will offer a 6/5 payout for landing on a blackjack, which is when you get an Ace with another card that values 10. However, you should try not to play at these venues, as the payout is worse than it could be and the house edge is higher. 

Traditionally, casinos have offered a 3/2 payout. To make this make sense, you would win $150 after wagering $100 with this payout. Comparatively, a 6/5 payout would only pay $120 for the same result. 

Most of the time, wins that aren’t a blackjack will be paid out at even odds. Meanwhile, insurance bets pay 2/1. While this is higher, though, you should avoid placing these bets unless it’s absolutely necessary. 

Blackjack Odds With Perfect Strategy: Can You Increase Your Chances of Winning?

Blackjack is part skill, part chance. While the cards you’re dealt will significantly impact your chances of winning, you can still decide what to do with the hand. Having a basic strategy will help you do precisely this. 

First and foremost, you should find a blackjack table with fewer decks. Doing so will significantly reduce the house edge without you needing to do anything extra. This is the easiest way to improve your blackjack odds. 

What you do with your cards can also help. For example, you can double after splitting, you can drop the house edge by 0.5% – which is pretty significant in the grand scheme of things. Meanwhile, doubling down when it makes sense can reduce the house edge by 0.2%.  

Combining multiple strategies can help you take a significant chunk off the house edge, which is why it’s so important to understand what you’re doing and when it makes sense to take certain actions. 

But how does this help, we hear you ask? 

Well, you can reduce the house edge – which will then improve your chances of winning. 

Let’s say, for example, that the house edge with a poor strategy is 3.5%. This means that the casino expects to make money from you, especially if you play over the long run (but honestly, even if you only play once or twice). With a good strategy, you can reduce this to less than 1%. 

You cannot drop the house edge to 0%, but getting it as low as possible is very important. 

Other Factors That Impact Blackjack Odds

In addition to what we’ve already discussed, you should keep each of these things in mind when understanding blackjack odds and trying to enhance your chances of success. 

• Chance and luck: Much of blackjack is luck of the draw. Even if you do everything right in one game, you might still not be successful.
• Casino rules: Some casinos have rules around card counting. If you’re not allowed to do this, you could find yourself running into issues when things get tough. 
• Stake limits: In some cases, casinos might let you wager smaller stakes. However, you should read the fine print; this often also means that the house edge is higher, meaning the odds will be stacked against you. 

Everything You Need to Know About Blackjack Odds

So, there you have it – now you have all the information you need to understand the odds of winning at blackjack. While the base chance of winning is 42%, you can do a couple of things to move the edge a bit more in your favor. For example, you should play games with fewer decks and find casinos with rules that are more reasonable. “Low-stakes” doesn’t necessarily mean good. 

Understanding the chances of winning based on your hand is also important. While you don’t need to hit 20 or above to win at blackjack, the payout will differ – and your chances of winning will also depend on your hand’s value. 

Having read this guide, you should have all the information you need to understand different blackjack odds. You can use this advice for both online and offline versions of the game. 

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