{"id":777048580,"date":"2026-10-14T07:26:31","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T10:26:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/?p=777048580"},"modified":"2026-10-14T07:27:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T10:27:19","slug":"macau-ggr-jefferies-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-ggr-jefferies-forecast","title":{"rendered":"Jefferies sees Macau GGR weakness extending into November"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The brokerage expects gaming revenue to recover in December, while VIP growth is forecast to offset part of the weakness in the mass-market segment in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Jefferies forecasts a 7 per cent year-on-year decline in Macau\u2019s GGR in October and continued weakness in November before a recovery in December.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It projects full-year GGR of MOP252bn (US$31bn) in 2026, up 1.7 per cent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Macau.- <strong>Jefferies<\/strong> expects <strong>Macau\u2019s gross gaming revenue (GGR)<\/strong> to remain under pressure in <strong>October and November<\/strong>. In a report published on October 13, analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei forecast a 7 per cent year-on-year decline in October and continued weakness into November before a recovery in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The brokerage expects Macau\u2019s full-year 2026 GGR to reach MOP252bn (US$31bn). That would represent growth of 1.7 per cent, below the market expectation of around 3 per cent. Jefferies forecasts that mass-market GGR will end the year down by 0.5 per cent while VIP revenue will be up by 7.6 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this week, <a href=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-casinos-ebitda-ggr-costs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CLSA<\/a> forecast that Macau\u2019s casino operators will report an 11 per cent year-on-year decline in third-quarter EBITDA to US$1.84bn as weaker gross gaming revenue and higher operating costs weigh on profitability. CLSA forecasts third-quarter GGR at MOP60.2bn (US$7.45bn), which would represent a 3.8 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has said that Macau will maintain its <a href=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-ggr-forecast\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-ggr-forecast\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast<\/a> of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn) for now, despite four consecutive months of year-on-year declines. He said the government would assess October\u2019s revenue before considering any change to the annual target, with authorities monitoring whether increased visitor arrivals during <a href=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-welcomes-1-14m-visitors-during-october-golden-week\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">China\u2019s Golden Week<\/a> holiday translated into stronger casino spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br><\/p>\n\n\n<div id=\"see-also-container\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"see-also-label\">See also:<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-article\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"related-article__thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/10\/cecfa112-5a32-46a9-acb1-c0d931b294b6-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"related-article__text\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"see-also-label-strong\">See also:<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-ggr-forecast\">Macau maintains gaming revenue forecast as gaming tax climbs 5.6% in year to date<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The brokerage expects gaming revenue to recover in December, while VIP growth is forecast to offset part of the weakness in the mass-market segment in 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":226,"featured_media":777034484,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"is_press_release":false,"is_interview":false,"is_opinion":false,"focusai_summary":"Brokerages Jefferies and CLSA project continued GGR pressure in Macau through November, with Jefferies forecasting a December recovery and a 1.7% GGR growth for 2026, driven by VIP segment strength. This contrasts with the Macau government's slightly lower, yet maintained, 2026 GGR target, highlighting divergent market expectations and the impact of operating costs on casino profitability.","focusai_entities":"Jefferies, CLSA, Anne Ling, Jingjue Pei, Sam Hou Fai","focusai_location":"Macau, China","focusai_target_profile":"ceo_executive (0.95), regulator (0.75), operator_casino (1.0), marketing_crm (0.7), investor_analyst (1.0), supplier_vendor (0.7), journalist_researcher (0.9)","focusai_suggestions":[{"label":"Macau GGR Outlook","query":"What specific factors are driving the divergence between Jefferies' and the Macau government's 2026 GGR forecasts, particularly concerning the mass-market versus VIP segment contributions?"},{"label":"Operator Profitability Impact","query":"How might the projected 11% YoY decline in Q3 EBITDA for Macau casino operators, coupled with GGR pressure and higher operating costs, influence their capital expenditure and dividend policies in the near term?"}],"footnotes":""},"categories":[16338,163],"tags":[29,24891,257],"class_list":["post-777048580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-east-asia-news","category-finance-news","tag-casino","tag-jefferies","tag-macau"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777048580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/226"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=777048580"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777048580\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":777048592,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777048580\/revisions\/777048592"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/777034484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=777048580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=777048580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=777048580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}