{"id":777048471,"date":"2026-10-12T07:54:38","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T10:54:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/?p=777048471"},"modified":"2026-10-16T12:34:02","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T15:34:02","slug":"macau-ggr-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-ggr-forecast","title":{"rendered":"Macau maintains gaming revenue forecast as gaming tax climbs 5.6% in year to date"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">October\u2019s results will be key to assessing whether Macau can meet its 2026 GGR target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said the government will assess October\u2019s gaming revenue before considering any revision to Macau&#8217;s 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GGR reached MOP181.341bn (US$20.95bn) in the first nine months, up 3.7 per cent year-on-year. That means the next three months would need to generate at least MOP48.9bn (US$6bn) to meet the forecast.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Macau collected MOP74.56bn (US$9.22bn) in casino taxes in the first nine months of the year, up 5.9 per cent compared with January-September 2025. Gaming taxes accounted for 84.1 per cent of government revenue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Macau.- Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has confirmed that Macau will maintain its 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn) for now, despite four consecutive months of year-on-year declines. He said the government would assess October\u2019s revenue before considering any change to its annual target, with authorities monitoring whether increased visitor arrivals during <a href=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-welcomes-1-14m-visitors-during-october-golden-week\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">China\u2019s Golden Week<\/a> holiday translate into stronger casino spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cumulatively, Macau\u2019s GGR for the <a href=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-ggr-september-revenue\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-ggr-september-revenue\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">first nine months of 2026<\/a> was MOP181.341bn (US$20.95bn), up 3.7 per cent year-on-year but 15.1 per cent below the MOP220.297bn (US$27.30bn) recorded in the corresponding period of 2019. To meet the current full-year forecast, GGR would need to total MOP48.9bn (US$6bn) in the final three months, equivalent to an average of MOP16.3bn per month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">GGR has been down year-on-year since since June, when GGR was down 12.1 per cent year-on-year. Revenue was down by 8.4 per cent in July and 1.2 per cent in both August and September. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Macau gaming tax up 5.9 per cent in first nine months of 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Financial Services Bureau has reported that Macau collected MOP74.56bn (US$9.22bn) in casino taxes in the first nine months of the year. The figure was up 5.9 per cent compared with the January-September period of 2025. Gaming taxes accounted for 84.1 per cent of government revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under the 10-year concessions that came into effect on January 1, 2023, casinos pay 40 per cent on GGR. The monthly tax receipts for September amounted to MOP8.39bn (US$1.04bn), down 1.6 per cent year-on-year, but up 7.4 per cent compared with <a href=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-collects-us8-19bn-in-gaming-tax-through-august\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">August<\/a>. The Macau government\u2019s 2026 fiscal budget plan estimated that income from taxes on the gaming sector would reach MOP92.53bn (US$11.52bn) this year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br><\/p>\n\n\n<div id=\"see-also-container\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"see-also-label\">See also:<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"related-article\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"related-article__thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/04\/5b903ec4-3d93-4968-9fdc-5f14bfd3b3ed-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"related-article__text\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"see-also-label-strong\">See also:<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/macau-gaming-sector-receipts-reach-us31bn-in-2025\">Macau gaming sector receipts reach US$31bn in 2025<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>October\u2019s results will be key to assessing whether Macau can meet its 2026 GGR target.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":226,"featured_media":777048473,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"is_press_release":false,"is_interview":false,"is_opinion":false,"focusai_summary":"Macau's Chief Executive has affirmed the MOP236bn (US$29.2bn) GGR forecast for 2026 will be maintained, pending October's revenue assessment, despite four consecutive months of year-on-year declines. The region requires MOP48.9bn in Q4 to meet this target, while casino tax revenue for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 5.9%, constituting 84.1% of government revenue.","focusai_entities":"Sam Hou Fai, Financial Services Bureau","focusai_location":"Macau, China","focusai_target_profile":"ceo_executive (0.9), regulator (0.95), compliance_legal (0.7), operator_casino (0.95), investor_analyst (0.95), supplier_vendor (0.75), journalist_researcher (0.9)","focusai_suggestions":[{"label":"Macau GGR Outlook","query":"What specific policy adjustments or market interventions might the Macau government consider if the 2026 GGR target remains unmet after October's assessment?"},{"label":"Tax Revenue Impact","query":"How might sustained GGR underperformance impact Macau's long-term fiscal stability, given gaming taxes constitute over 80% of government revenue?"}],"footnotes":""},"categories":[16338,163,24628,158],"tags":[29,23908,257],"class_list":["post-777048471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-east-asia-news","category-finance-news","category-highlight-of-the-week","category-slider-home","tag-casino","tag-gaming-regulation","tag-macau"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777048471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/226"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=777048471"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777048471\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":777048492,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777048471\/revisions\/777048492"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/777048473"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=777048471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=777048471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=777048471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}