Cumulatively, GGR for the first three months of the year<\/a> was MOP57.66bn (US$7.20bn), up 0.6 per cent from the prior-year period.\u00a0Tax revenue figures cannot be directly compared because there is usually a delay between when GGR is documented and when the government recognises the tax as being paid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Under the 10-year concessions that came into effect on January 1, 2023, casinos pay 40 per cent on gross gaming revenue (GGR). The 2025 budget plan, which the Legislative Assembly approved in December, estimates that Macau’s casino GGR\u00a0will reach MOP240bn (US$29.7bn)<\/a>\u00a0this year. Gaming taxes are expected to reach MOP93.12bn (US$11.6bn).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n The take for the first quarter this year represents 23.8 per cent of that figure. First quarter gambling tax amounted to 88.4 per cent of the government\u2019s total revenue for the period.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Seaport Research Partners<\/strong> has revised downwards its GGR forecast for Macau\u2019s casino sector <\/strong>for this year from 6.5 per cent to 3 per cent. The move follows a \u201cweaker than expected start to the year.\u201d For 2026 and 2027, analysts maintained their forecasts at 7 per cent with GGR expected to reach 92 per cent of 2019 levels by 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst Vitaly Umansky <\/strong>said he expects the market to strengthen in late summer and the second half of this year, adding that he does not expect US president Donald Trump’s tariff announcements to significantly hurt Macau\u2019s economy for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He noted that the long-term growth of Macau\u2019s gaming industry is still strong, driven by more visitors and higher spending on baccarat side bets, which have a higher casino advantage. Seaport said the benefits of smart digital tables could be better than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Seaport warned that a significant drop in the value of China\u2019s currency or a weaker Chinese economy could negatively impact its forecast. It expects first-quarter results to be weak as Macau\u2019s growth stagnated, although individual companies should perform as expected.<\/p>\n\n\nSeaport lowers Macau GGR forecast for 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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