{"id":777025323,"date":"2025-04-15T04:54:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T07:54:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/?p=777025323"},"modified":"2026-04-21T23:51:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T02:51:30","slug":"jp-morgan-expects-macau-ggr-to-decline-in-q4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/jp-morgan-expects-macau-ggr-to-decline-in-q4","title":{"rendered":"JP Morgan expects Macau GGR to decline in Q4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

GGR could be down 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Macau.- Analysts at\u00a0JP Morgan Securities\u00a0(Asia Pacific) <\/strong>have predicted that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could fall 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter. Analysts said that despite stable performance so far, it has revised its fourth quarter GGR forecast downwards from a 5 per cent increase to an 8 per cent decrease year-on-year due to increasing macro headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DS Kim<\/strong> and Selina Li <\/strong>said the updated model was part of an effort to establish a floor earnings baseline amid emerging economic uncertainties, including the tariff dispute between the US and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts said: “Historical trends suggest a 10 percentage point reduction in GGR loosely implies a 5 percentage point slowdown in China’s gross domestic product (GDP), hence we believe our cut reflects a reasonable bear-case.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts noted that the combined market capitalisations of the six casino operators have dropped to levels not seen since the last Macau initial public offering (IPO) in 2011, even though there are now 10 integrated resorts (IRs) in the city compared to just three at the time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for US president Donald Trump’s tariffs, analysts said that while the announcements may not have a direct impact on Macau, they could lead to slower economic growth given its exposure to Guangdong, China’s largest export hub and a weaker renminbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter<\/a>, GGR reached MOP57.66bn (US$7.21bn). That’s an increase of 0.6 per cent in year-on-year terms<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t\t\tSee also:<\/span><\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\tSee also:<\/span> Macau GGR rises slightly in March<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GGR could be down 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176,"featured_media":20685,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"is_press_release":false,"is_interview":false,"is_opinion":false,"focusai_summary":"JP Morgan analysts have revised Macau's Q4 2025 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) forecast downwards by 10% compared to Q1, attributing the adjustment to increasing macro headwinds, notably the US-China tariff dispute and its potential impact on China's GDP and the renminbi. This recalibration establishes a bear-case earnings baseline, highlighting that the combined market capitalisation of Macau's six casino operators has regressed to 2011 IPO levels despite a substantial increase in integrated resort infrastructure.","focusai_entities":"JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific), DS Kim, Selina Li, Donald Trump","focusai_location":"Macau, China, Guangdong, US","focusai_target_profile":"ceo_executive (0.95), regulator (0.75), operator_casino (1.0), investor_analyst (1.0), supplier_vendor (0.7), journalist_researcher (0.9)","focusai_suggestions":[{"label":"Operator Mitigation Strategies","query":"What specific operational and financial mitigation strategies are Macau's integrated resort operators deploying to counteract the projected GGR decline driven by geopolitical macro headwinds and currency fluctuations?"},{"label":"Valuation Disparity Analysis","query":"How do current market capitalisations of Macau's six casino operators, at 2011 IPO levels despite increased IR infrastructure, reflect a fundamental re-rating of the sector, and what are the key drivers of this valuation disparity?"}],"footnotes":""},"categories":[16338,163],"tags":[257],"class_list":["post-777025323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-east-asia-news","category-finance-news","tag-macau"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777025323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/176"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=777025323"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777025323\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":777025347,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777025323\/revisions\/777025347"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=777025323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=777025323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=777025323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}