April GGR estimation looks set to be even worse<\/strong><\/em><\/a> after a sharp decline in the number of daily visitors to the city. <\/p>\n\n\n\nWhile the immediate future looks bleak, Nomura estimates the market will show signs of recover from June onwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere will likely be a recovery in 2020, but slow,\u201d wrote analysts Harry Curtis, Daniel Adam and Brian Dobson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
They said normal traffic flow at Macau borders could resume in six to 12 months, but that the recent travelling restrictions implemented in mainland China indicated “Beijing is taking the risk of a second wave of infection seriously.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“When the IVS system is restarted, it will be into a safe and controlled environment,” they added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If normal levels return in June, second-quarter GGR could be down about 80 per cent in year-on-year terms. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
“VIP and premium mass are probably the first to recover since there are likely to be restrictions on visitation growth which will limit mass,” the analysts continued. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
They also forecast GGR to decline by 65 per cent and 60 per cent in the third and fourth quarters year-on-year respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They also said the Macau market might eventually recover and reach US$22.6billion in GGR in 2021, roughly 62 per cent of the 2019 level, “if the reinfection rate [of Covid-19] is low.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“To achieve this number, IVS needs to expand to larger, more distant provinces, mass and group visitors must have confidence in health screening protocols at the borders, and social distancing policies on casino floors should be relaxed, thus increasing the number of operational gaming positions during peak periods,\u201d the Nomura said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nomura analysts expect the sector to show signs of improvement after taking a big knock due to the Coronavirus crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"is_press_release":false,"is_interview":false,"is_opinion":false,"focusai_summary":"Nomura analysts, via Instinet, project a slow recovery for Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) starting from June 2020, following significant contractions due to COVID-19 and stringent border restrictions. While Q2 2020 GGR is estimated to be down 80% year-on-year, the market could reach US$22.6 billion in GGR by 2021, contingent on relaxed travel restrictions and expanded Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) access.","focusai_entities":"Nomura, Instinet, Harry Curtis, Daniel Adam, Brian Dobson, Beijing","focusai_location":"Macau, Guangdong province, Mainland China","focusai_target_profile":"ceo_executive (0.9), regulator (0.8), compliance_legal (0.7), operator_casino (1.0), marketing_crm (0.7), investor_analyst (1.0), supplier_vendor (0.7), journalist_researcher (0.9)","focusai_suggestions":[{"label":"IVS Expansion Impact","query":"What specific policy changes and logistical challenges must be addressed to expand the IVS system to more distant provinces, and what is the projected GGR uplift from such an expansion beyond the 2021 forecast?"},{"label":"Operational Capacity Post-COVID","query":"Beyond GGR recovery, what are the long-term implications of potential social distancing protocols on casino floor operational capacity, staffing requirements, and overall NGR margins for Macau operators?"}],"footnotes":""},"categories":[160,161,16338,163,167,158],"tags":[257],"class_list":["post-5575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia-pacific","category-daily-news","category-east-asia-news","category-finance-news","category-news-region","category-slider-home","tag-macau"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5575"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5575\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":777021713,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5575\/revisions\/777021713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}