{"id":28492,"date":"2022-03-29T06:37:03","date_gmt":"2022-03-29T09:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/?p=28492"},"modified":"2026-04-23T10:07:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T13:07:42","slug":"morgan-stanley-reduces-macau-2022-ggr-forecast-to-us11bn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/morgan-stanley-reduces-macau-2022-ggr-forecast-to-us11bn","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley reduces Macau 2022 GGR forecast to US$11bn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Morgan Stanley has lowered its predictions for Macau\u2019s gross gaming revenue in 2022 due to multiple factors that have led to a weak market recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Macau.- Banking group Morgan Stanley now expects\u00a0Macau’s GGR for 2022<\/strong> to be equivalent to US$11bn<\/strong>, 30 per cent lower than its previous estimate and 30 per cent lower than the figure reported in 2019. Mass and slot revenues for 2022 have been revised down by 26 per cent in the latest forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts also\u00a0lowered their 2023 GGR estimate<\/strong>, in this case by 11 per cent, or 62 per cent of 2019 casino GGR. Mass and slot revenues are estimated to be 10 per cent lower than the previous forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last December,\u00a0analysts had predicted casino GGR<\/a>\u00a0in 2022 and 2023 would reach 42 per cent and 70 per cent of 2019 pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Praveen Choudhary, Gareth Leung, and Thomas Allen<\/strong>, analysts at Morgan Stanley, said: “Without a meaningful uptick in Macau visitor volume, including authorities in mainland China and Hong Kong easing travel policies relative to Covid-19 restrictions Macau casino companies will remain free cash flow negative, driving net debt higher and book value lower.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They said\u00a0the gaming industry is seeing more than US$800m in losses<\/strong>\u00a0and US$250m in cash flow leakage per quarter<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A report released by the banking group reads: “Net debt has moved from US$5bn at the end of 2019 to US$20bn at the end of 2021, and shareholders\u2019 equity has moved from US$23bn to US$12bn.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley’s estimate for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is down 63 per cent from its previous forecast to US$1.4bn. In the first quarter of this year, Morgan Stanley expects the\u00a0Macau sector’s EBITDA<\/strong>\u00a0to increase by 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter, despite a flat quarter-on-quarter block revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See also:<\/strong> Macau 2-month gaming tax revenue reaches US$711.18m<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Morgan Stanley has lowered its predictions for Macau\u2019s gross gaming revenue in 2022 due to multiple factors that have led to a weak market recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176,"featured_media":26708,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"is_press_release":false,"is_interview":false,"is_opinion":false,"focusai_summary":"Morgan Stanley has significantly lowered its 2022 and 2023 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) forecasts for Macau, citing persistent travel restrictions and weak market recovery. The banking group projects 2022 GGR at US$11bn, a 30% reduction from previous estimates, leading to increased net debt and declining shareholders' equity for casino operators. This downgrade reflects sustained negative free cash flow and a challenging operational environment.","focusai_entities":"Morgan Stanley, Praveen Choudhary, Gareth Leung, Thomas Allen","focusai_location":"Macau, China, Hong Kong","focusai_target_profile":"ceo_executive (1.0), regulator (0.7), operator_casino (1.0), investor_analyst (1.0), supplier_vendor (0.8), journalist_researcher (1.0)","focusai_suggestions":[{"label":"Macau GGR Recovery?","query":"What specific policy changes from mainland China and Hong Kong authorities regarding travel restrictions would be required to achieve a meaningful uptick in Macau visitor volume and reverse the negative free cash flow trend for operators?"},{"label":"Operator Debt Impact?","query":"How will the projected increase in net debt and decline in shareholders' equity impact the capital structure and potential for future M&A or expansion initiatives among Macau's concessionaires?"}],"footnotes":""},"categories":[157,16338],"tags":[23906],"class_list":["post-28492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-news","category-east-asia-news","tag-macau-casinos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/176"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28492"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28519,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28492\/revisions\/28519"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}