{"id":18345,"date":"2021-05-27T14:32:24","date_gmt":"2021-05-27T14:32:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/?p=18345"},"modified":"2026-04-23T19:08:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T22:08:54","slug":"morgan-stanley-cuts-forecast-for-macau-ggr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/morgan-stanley-cuts-forecast-for-macau-ggr","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley cuts forecast for Macau GGR"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Morgan Stanley now forecasts that Macau GGR will reach nearly 45 per cent of pre-pandemic levels this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Macau.- Morgan Stanley <\/strong>has cut its forecast for Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) this year by 19 per cent<\/strong> to US$16.3bn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previously, analysts had said Macau GGR<\/a> could reach MOP189bn (US$23.6bn)<\/strong>, about 65 per cent of GGR reported in 2019. However, the banking group now thinks it will reach just MOP130.19bn (US$16.3bn)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would be just 45 per cent of 2019 levels<\/strong>, but it would an improvement of 115.4 per cent when compared to 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley said it had revised its previous forecast due to the new rise in Covid-19 cases in Asia<\/strong> and the delay in in easing travel restrictions between Hong Kong and Macau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mainland China remains the only country to have a largely quarantine-free travel bubble<\/strong> with Macau, but the city has resumed a 14-day quarantine for travellers<\/strong> from one district in Guangdong province due to a rise in Covid-19 cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for corporate EBITDA, analysts estimate US$2.89bn<\/strong>, down 37 per cent from its previous prediction of nearly US$4.6bn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley said: “Investors are waiting for Macau revenue\/profit to normalise, which needs the reinstatement of the mainland\u2019s electronic application system for Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) exit visas<\/strong>, the resumption of group visas, and Mainland-Hong Kong-Macau reopening.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bernstein has recently predicted Macau GGR<\/a> for May will be down by 60 per cent <\/strong>compared to May 2019, previous to the Covid-19 pandemic. As for 2021 as a whole<\/strong>, it still predicts GGR will be about 64 per cent of 2019 levels<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moody\u2019s Investor Service<\/a> has recently reported that it believes Macau\u2019s economy could rebound <\/strong>to pre-Covid-19 levels by 2024<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts said that although the special administrative region\u2019s (SAR) economy has been seriously hit<\/strong> by the Covid-19 pandemic, Macau maintains strong sovereign finances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moody\u2019s has given Macau an Aa3 rating<\/strong>, which means it is subject to very low credit risk<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It said: \u201cThe growth volatility of Macau\u2019s economy is among the highest of all rated sovereigns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut despite the highly volatile nature of economic growth, Macao\u2019s vast fiscal and external reserves \u2014 significantly stronger than those of similarly rated peers<\/strong> \u2014 and very high per capita incomes continue to support its credit profile.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts say Macau\u2019s recovery is highly dependent on a full return of tourist arrivals<\/strong>, and the number of visitors is expected to remain at about 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels through the second half of the year 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MGM China vaccinated 1,200 employees after hosting outreach vaccination services<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Casino operators MGM China and Sands China hosted vaccination services<\/strong> last week. MGM saw 1,200 of its employees get vaccinated<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kenneth Xiaofeng<\/strong>, MGM China President and CFO, stated: “We will continue to talk to the government to see what kind of programmes we might continue to develop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“We will closely follow the government, directives to make sure more and more employees get the vaccine<\/strong> so that mainland visitors can have more and more confidence in visiting Macau.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Alvis Lo Iek Long, health bureau director, MGM employees will get the second dose of the Covid-19 vaccine 28 days after the first dose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melco Resorts<\/a> has encouraged employees to get vaccinated against Covid-19 through an \u201cimmunity incentive programme\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The company will give each employee a bonus of MOP1,000 (US$125) <\/strong>after getting the vaccine. Those who get the vaccine could also win MOP1m once the company has reached certain immunity targets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melco Resorts is working in coordination with the Macau Health Bureau and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention<\/strong>. It is arranging shuttle transportation for staff to attend vaccination appointments and grants staff two full days of paid vaccine leave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr Leong Iek Hou<\/strong>, Novel Coronavirus Response and Coordination Centre coordinator, has revealed that vaccinated residents<\/strong> will be allowed to go to public events such as concerts, sports competitions and festivals without a negative nucleic acid test<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Morgan Stanley now forecasts that Macau GGR will reach nearly 45 per cent of pre-pandemic levels this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176,"featured_media":18389,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"is_press_release":false,"is_interview":false,"is_opinion":false,"focusai_summary":"Morgan Stanley has significantly reduced its 2021 Macau Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) forecast to US$16.3bn, representing 45% of 2019 levels, citing COVID-19 resurgence and persistent travel restrictions. This revision also impacts corporate EBITDA projections, now down 37%. Concurrently, major casino operators like MGM China and Melco Resorts are actively implementing employee vaccination programs, some with incentives, to bolster visitor confidence and facilitate market recovery.","focusai_entities":"Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, Moody's Investor Service, MGM China, Sands China, Melco Resorts, Kenneth Xiaofeng, Alvis Lo Iek Long, Dr Leong Iek Hou, Macau Health Bureau, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Novel Coronavirus Response and Coordination Centre","focusai_location":"Macau, Hong Kong, Mainland China, Guangdong","focusai_target_profile":"ceo_executive (0.95), regulator (0.75), operator_casino (0.98), marketing_crm (0.7), investor_analyst (0.99), supplier_vendor (0.78), journalist_researcher (0.9)","focusai_suggestions":[{"label":"IVS Reinstatement Impact","query":"What is the projected GGR uplift and timeline associated with the full reinstatement of the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) electronic application system and group visas for mainland Chinese visitors?"},{"label":"Operator Liquidity Analysis","query":"How do the revised corporate EBITDA forecasts impact the liquidity and debt service capabilities of Macau's concessionaires, particularly given ongoing operational costs and capital expenditure commitments?"}],"footnotes":""},"categories":[157,16338,158],"tags":[23906],"class_list":["post-18345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-news","category-east-asia-news","category-slider-home","tag-macau-casinos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/176"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18345"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18345\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18390,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18345\/revisions\/18390"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18389"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/focusgn.com\/asia-pacific\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}