IMF expects continued weakness for VIP gaming in Macau
Mass-market gaming accounted for around 73 per cent of Macau’s casino GGR in 2025.
Key takeaways:
- The IMF expects VIP gaming to continue to represent a relatively small GGR share over the medium term.
- It expects Macau’s real GDP growth to moderate from 4.7 per cent in 2025 to 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.1 per cent in 2027.
Macau.- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects VIP gamin in Macau to continue to represent a relatively small share of casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) over the medium term. Its 2026 Article IV consultation for Macao SAR published on September 29 notes that despite some signs of recovery, VIP gaming is likely to remain subdued due to tighter rules for junket operators introduced via Macau’s reforms in 2022.
Mass-market gaming accounted for around 73 per cent of Macau’s casino GGR in 2025, the IMF report states. Overall casino GGR increased 9.1 per cent year-on-year in 2025, reaching approximately 85 per cent of its 2019 level, and rose another 6.9 per cent in the first half of 2026, driven by the mass segment.
The IMF said gaming revenues remain around 15 per cent below their pre-pandemic peak due to structural changes in VIP gaming, tighter regulation and evolving visitor spending patterns. Regulatory changes include stricter licensing requirements, limits on gaming credit and stronger anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing enforcement.
Despite the shift in the market, gaming continues to play a major role in Macau’s economy. The IMF estimates that the sector accounts for around 40 per cent to 45 per cent of GDP. Mainland Chinese visitors represent approximately 70 per cent of total tourist arrivals.
The IMF expects Macau’s real GDP growth to moderate from 4.7 per cent in 2025 to 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.1 per cent in 2027, citing weaker external conditions and slower growth in mainland China and Hong Kong. The IMF said Macau’s diversification efforts will remain important, with the government targeting a 60 per cent share of GDP from non-gaming activities by 2030.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
- What share of Macau gaming revenue comes from the mass market? Mass-market gaming accounted for around 73 per cent of Macau’s casino GGR in 2025, according to the IMF.
- Why is VIP gaming declining in Macau? Tighter junket regulations, stricter licensing, limits on gaming credit and stronger AML/CFT enforcement have affected VIP gaming.
