Seaport forecasts Macau GGR growth below 1% in 2026

Seaport Research Partners expects a sixth consecutive month of year-on-year revenue declines in November, as weaker VIP demand continues to weigh on the market.

Key takeaways:

• Seaport Research Partners forecasts Macau GGR growth of 0.9 per cent year-on-year in 2026.
• November GGR is expected to decline 6.1 per cent year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of annual decreases.
• Seaport forecasts Macau GGR growth of 3 per cent in 2027.

Macau.- Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to grow by just 0.9 per cent year-on-year in 2026, according to Seaport Research Partners. The brokerage projects that November GGR will decline 6.1 per cent year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of annual decline amid continued weakness in high-end gaming.

Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky expects fourth-quarter GGR to fall 5.2 per cent year-on-year, although the forecast suggests some improvement in December. October saw a 10 per cent year-on-year decline in casino revenue to MOP21.68bn (US$2.69bn), as reported by Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). Seaport said this was in line with its expectations and represented the largest year-on-year moderation in GGR over the previous four months.

According to the brokerage’s estimates, VIP GGR fell by more than 35 per cent year-on-year in October, while mass-market revenue declined by a low single-digit percentage. Umansky attributed the ongoing weakness in higher-end play to several factors, including softer economic conditions in China, falling stock market performance and government tax enforcement affecting high-net-worth individuals with overseas assets.

“Softer demand is evident in higher-end play,” Umansky said, adding that the factors had also contributed to some high rollers delaying their visits to Macau. He noted that visitor volumes remained robust, but that “softness in high-end play has clearly driven weakness over the last several months”.

Seaport maintains a more positive outlook for next year, forecasting Macau GGR growth of 3 per cent in 2027. Umansky suggested that gaming stock valuations, particularly those of operators with Macau exposure, remain attractive, although he acknowledged that short-term catalysts are lacking.