Macau casino EBITDA to fall 10.6% in Q3, Seaport says
Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky points to high player reinvestment costs and agent commissions as key pressures on operators’ profitability.
Key takeaways:
- Seaport expects Macau casino property EBITDA is forecast to fall 10.6 per cent year-on-year to US$1.86bn in Q3 2026 and 3.4 per cent in Q4.
- Galaxy Entertainment is forecast to be the only operator to post year-on-year property EBITDA growth.
Macau.- Seaport Research Partners expects Macau casino operators to report a combined 10.6 per cent year-on-year decline in property-level earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to US$1.86bn in the third quarter of 2026. Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky says the industry’s EBITDA margin will narrow by nearly 1.8 percentage points to 26.1 per cent.
Seaport attributed the pressure on profitability to elevated player reinvestment and agent commissions, alongside weaker high-end gaming demand. Umansky said margins are unlikely to recover until stronger revenue growth materialises. He expects Galaxy Entertainment to be the only operator to record year-on-year growth in property EBITDA, with a projected increase of 10.7 per cent. However, its hold-adjusted EBITDA, which accounts for variations in casino win rates, is forecast to decline 6.9 per cent.
MGM China’s property EBITDA is projected to remain broadly flat year-on-year, while Sands China, Wynn Macau, Melco Resorts & Entertainment and SJM Holdings are expected to report declines ranging from 13 per cent to 35.4 per cent. Seaport expects Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment to post the strongest market-share gains during the quarter, followed by MGM China.
The outlook follows a 3.8 per cent year-on-year decline in Macau’s third-quarter gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP60.22bn (US$7.46bn). Seaport expects reported property EBITDA to increase 2.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter, but forecasts hold-adjusted EBITDA to fall 9.2 per cent sequentially and 12.4 per cent year-on-year, reflecting underlying operating pressure.
As for the fourth quarter, it expects continued headwinds, but not as severe as in the third quarter, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) estimated to fall 0.7 per cent year-on-year and EBITDA dropping 3.4 per cent. Player reinvestment and agent commissions are expected to remain elevated.
