Kenya\u2019s gambling regulator expects to introduce a dedicated prediction-market licence, with cross-border access, cryptocurrency payments and permitted event types among the outstanding regulatory questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Kenya.- Kenya\u2019s Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) expects to introduce a dedicated licence category for prediction markets<\/strong>, opening the way for a more specific framework for platforms offering contracts on future events. The proposed licence <\/strong>raises questions about how prediction markets linked to sport, elections and economic indicators will be regulated, particularly where platforms operate across borders or use cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The GRA has opened its 2026\/27 licensing period, and several businesses have approached it about the proposed category, according to Global Gaming Insider, citing an interview with GRA director general Peter Karimi<\/strong> published by Business Daily on October 18. The regulator has not announced application requirements or an implementation date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Karimi said the GRA considers prediction markets gambling because they involve outcomes that have yet to occur. He explained the authority\u2019s position: \u201cThe interpretation of the GRA is that gambling involves primarily games of chance<\/strong> and prediction by definition is about outcomes that are in the future, and therefore no skill is required.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n These platforms offer contracts linked to future events<\/strong>, including elections, economic indicators and sporting events, rather than the fixed-odds bets typically offered by licensed bookmakers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Gambling Control Act 2025 lists online bookmaker, online lottery and online casino licences, while allowing further categories to be prescribed through regulations<\/strong>. This provides a potential legal route for the GRA to establish a separate prediction-market category. However, the authority has not published specific licensing requirements for these platforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Existing online gambling provisions cover control systems and measures relating to payments, age verification, advertising<\/strong> and regulator access to transaction data. The GRA is also examining cross-border access and cryptocurrency payments, which Karimi identified as particular challenges. He said some platforms operate exclusively in the United States, while others use cryptocurrency for onboarding and withdrawals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Karimi highlighted the challenges posed by unrestricted marketing, saying: \u201cWe have to prepare for the fact that marketing knows no bounds.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Business Daily reported on October 18 that 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit were not licensed, while Kenyan users were already participating in their markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The proposed licence category comes amid wider legal challenges to Kenya\u2019s gambling regulatory framework. On October 21, the High Court referred three constitutional petitions<\/a> challenging the Gambling Control Act 2025 and the 2026 regulations to the Principal Judge for directions on which court should hear them. The referral was procedural and did not determine the merits of the challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n