Study finds Nigerian betting influencers’ tips lead to losses for followers
Research analysing 5,467 betting tips shared by Nigerian influencers finds followers copying the bets could lose up to 38.27 per cent.
Nigeria.- A new academic study analysing sports betting tips shared by Nigerian social media influencers has found that followers who copy their predictions are likely to incur significant losses.
The research, published as a preprint on April 8 2026 on the research platform arXiv, examined 5,467 betting tips posted by three Nigerian betting influencers across social media platforms including X and Telegram. The study analysed the performance of the tips and simulated different betting strategies used by followers.
According to the findings, the influencers themselves generated an average return on investment of –25.24 per cent, meaning the bets they promoted resulted in losses over time. A bettor staking the same amount on each of the tips would have experienced an even larger average loss of –38.27 per cent.
Researchers verified the outcomes against official Stake.com records, creating a dataset covering approximately $4.8m in tracked bets used to evaluate the success rate of the predictions and calculate potential returns for followers. The study concluded that none of the tested betting strategies based on the influencers’ tips produced positive returns.
The study highlights concerns about the growing influence of betting influencers on social media, particularly in rapidly expanding sports betting markets such as Nigeria. Betting influencers often share predictions and betting results on social media, which can create the impression of consistent profitability despite the underlying statistical performance of the bets.
Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest sports betting markets, with millions of players participating through mobile platforms and social media channels. The researchers said their findings underline the importance of consumer awareness and transparency around betting promotions shared online.
