Osun governorship election generates millions in prediction market trades
There was a significant increase in the number of Nigerians participating in prediction markets tied to a political contest, with substantial sums being invested by traders in their preferred candidates.
Nigeria.- The recently concluded Osun State governorship election has reportedly become the first Nigerian political election to attract millions of naira in trades through a prediction market.
According to Nairametrics, the activity largely took place on Bayse Markets, where users bought and sold positions based on their expectations of the election outcome. The market marked a significant increase in Nigerians’ participation in prediction markets tied to a political contest, with traders putting substantial sums behind their preferred candidates.
One trader, identified as “ayo_folarin”, reportedly staked ₦4.8m (US$3,561) on Bola Oyebamiji, with a potential payout of ₦17m (US$12,614) if the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate won. Another trader placed ₦5m (US$ 3,710) on incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke. While other candidates contested the election, Adeleke and Oyebamiji were the two most prominent contenders and drew significant interest from traders on the prediction market.
Before voting, Bayse priced Adeleke at a 69 per cent probability of retaining the Osun governorship, making him the market’s leading candidate. Adeleke subsequently secured re-election in the August 15 governorship election, defeating Oyebamiji to retain control of Osun State.
Experts have suggested that the scale of the trading activity around the Osun election could also point to a developing market for political prediction trading in Nigeria, particularly as the country approaches the 2027 general elections, which will provide a much larger pool of political contests for such markets.
