Kenya GRA weighs dedicated licence for prediction markets

Kenya’s gambling regulator expects to introduce a dedicated prediction-market licence, with cross-border access, cryptocurrency payments and permitted event types among the outstanding regulatory questions.

Key takeaways:

• Kenya’s Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) expects to introduce a dedicated licence category for prediction-market platforms.
• GRA director general Peter Karimi considers prediction markets gambling because they involve staking money on future outcomes.
• The regulator has not announced an implementation date, application requirements or permitted event types.
• Cross-border access and cryptocurrency payments are among the issues under consideration.
• 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit were reported to be unlicensed while Kenyan users were already participating in their markets, according to an October 18 report.

Kenya.- Kenya’s Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) expects to introduce a dedicated licence category for prediction markets, opening the way for a more specific framework for platforms offering contracts on future events. The proposed licence raises questions about how prediction markets linked to sport, elections and economic indicators will be regulated, particularly where platforms operate across borders or use cryptocurrency.

The GRA has opened its 2026/27 licensing period, and several businesses have approached it about the proposed category, according to Global Gaming Insider, citing an interview with GRA director general Peter Karimi published by Business Daily on October 18. The regulator has not announced application requirements or an implementation date.

Karimi said the GRA considers prediction markets gambling because they involve outcomes that have yet to occur. He explained the authority’s position: “The interpretation of the GRA is that gambling involves primarily games of chance and prediction by definition is about outcomes that are in the future, and therefore no skill is required.”

These platforms offer contracts linked to future events, including elections, economic indicators and sporting events, rather than the fixed-odds bets typically offered by licensed bookmakers.

The Gambling Control Act 2025 lists online bookmaker, online lottery and online casino licences, while allowing further categories to be prescribed through regulations. This provides a potential legal route for the GRA to establish a separate prediction-market category. However, the authority has not published specific licensing requirements for these platforms.

Existing online gambling provisions cover control systems and measures relating to payments, age verification, advertising and regulator access to transaction data. The GRA is also examining cross-border access and cryptocurrency payments, which Karimi identified as particular challenges. He said some platforms operate exclusively in the United States, while others use cryptocurrency for onboarding and withdrawals.

Karimi highlighted the challenges posed by unrestricted marketing, saying: “We have to prepare for the fact that marketing knows no bounds.”

Business Daily reported on October 18 that 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit were not licensed, while Kenyan users were already participating in their markets.

The proposed licence category comes amid wider legal challenges to Kenya’s gambling regulatory framework. On October 21, the High Court referred three constitutional petitions challenging the Gambling Control Act 2025 and the 2026 regulations to the Principal Judge for directions on which court should hear them. The referral was procedural and did not determine the merits of the challenges.

In a separate case concerning licensing fees and gambling capital requirements, the High Court allowed the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) to process licence applications. The court had partially lifted the suspension of the new gambling rules, allowing most provisions to take effect while the increased licence fees and capital requirements remained subject to legal proceedings. A subsequent ruling allowed the disputed fees to be collected for licensing purposes, but not enforced while the legal challenge remained pending.

Frequently asked questions (FAQs)

• What are prediction markets? Prediction markets allow participants to buy or trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events, including sporting contests, elections and economic indicators.
• Will Kenya introduce a prediction-market licence? The Gambling Regulatory Authority expects to introduce a dedicated licence category, according to Director General Peter Karimi’s interview with Business Daily. No implementation date or application requirements have been announced.
• Will prediction markets be treated as gambling in Kenya? The GRA considers prediction markets gambling because participants stake money on future outcomes. Specific licensing requirements for these platforms have not yet been published.
• Which prediction-market platforms were identified in the report? 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit were reported to be accessible to Kenyan users without Kenyan gambling licences.