ADI Predictstreet faces scrutiny over the origins of its trading activity
An analysis of blockchain data raised doubts about the origin of trading activity.
Key takeaways
- The Wall Street Journal has reported that about US$108m of the US$167m traded on ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup, came from crypto wallets that appear connected to the company itself.
- Three Harvard students spotted the pattern in public blockchain records, and Solidus Labs corroborated their findings.
- The evidence does not establish deliberate manipulation or identify the wallets’ owner.
US.- ADI Predictstreet, the prediction market platform that became a FIFA’s official partner for the 2026 World Cup, is facing scrutiny after an analysis of blockchain data raised doubts about the origin of its trading activity. An investigation by The Wall Street Journal found that approximately US$108m of the US$167m traded in late September came from cryptocurrency wallets that appear to be connected to the company.
The analysis also found that 99 per cent of trading activity in late August involved 795 wallets. These accounts were reportedly funded by a single cryptocurrency address that also collected transaction fees on the platform, and they traded almost exclusively among themselves.
Three Harvard University students identified the pattern in publicly available blockchain records. Cryptocurrency analytics firm Solidus Labs corroborated their findings, while academics specialising in unusual trading activity have questioned whether the reported volumes reflected genuine market demand.
It’s been suggested that the findings point to the possibility of wash trading, a practice in which related accounts trade with one another to create the appearance of greater market activity. However, the available evidence does not establish deliberate manipulation or identify who owns the wallets.
ADI Predictstreet launched in April and received a gambling licence in Gibraltar, which was later converted to operate under a dedicated regulatory framework created for prediction markets. It has also attracted attention because of reported links to International Holding Company (IHC), a conglomerate chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a senior member of Abu Dhabi’s royal family and the United Arab Emirates’ national security adviser. IHC has denied claims that it controls Predictstreet.
