ACDC report raises national security concerns over prediction markets
The report raises questions about potential insider information and the exposure of sensitive military activity.
US.- The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) has raised concerns that prediction markets could allow government or military insiders to profit from non-public information while potentially exposing sensitive information to foreign adversaries. Its report identified at least 152 cryptocurrency wallets that traded on Polymarket contracts linked to undisclosed US military actions.
ACDC said the activity raises questions of whether government insiders are using privileged information to trade and whether successful accounts could inadvertently reveal military secrets. It also questioned whether foreign adversaries could be behind some of the activity as part of efforts to undermine military operations.
The report refers to accounts that have repeatedly predicted outcomes of US military interventions as “orcas”. ACDC described them as highly specialised and successful traders that can enter markets and then disappear from the blockchain. It said the suspected accounts recorded a win rate of more than 97.2 per cent, with average winnings of US$ 52,514 per wallet. Collectively, the wallets won approximately US$ 8 m while risking around US$ 2 m.
The group said identifying the owners of the accounts would be necessary to determine whether they are connected to insiders. ACDC noted that law enforcement agencies could use subpoena powers to establish their identities and referenced a previous case involving a US soldier who allegedly used privileged information to trade on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The report also identified “whales,” which place large bets, as well as bots. However, ACDC said the suspected orcas consistently trade earlier than these groups, which it considers an indication that they may have access to information before it becomes publicly available.
